Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Ohio St. 100.0%   1   32 - 2 16 - 2 32 - 2 16 - 2 +21.4      +10.9 1 +10.6 1 66.3 221 +25.2 1 +23.4 1
6 Purdue 100.0%   3   25 - 7 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +17.4      +8.7 6 +8.7 6 69.3 142 +17.1 10 +19.4 2
9 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   23 - 8 13 - 5 23 - 8 13 - 5 +16.5      +8.5 8 +8.0 12 51.6 345 +16.2 13 +17.8 3
20 Illinois 99.0%   8   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +13.4      +6.7 19 +6.7 20 67.9 172 +11.6 34 +11.7 5
36 Michigan 95.8%   9   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +11.3      +5.6 35 +5.6 37 59.8 325 +11.9 31 +11.4 7
42 Michigan St. 91.3%   10   18 - 14 9 - 9 18 - 14 9 - 9 +10.7      +5.3 42 +5.4 41 67.4 190 +12.2 28 +11.6 6
43 Penn St. 97.6%   8   19 - 14 9 - 9 19 - 14 9 - 9 +10.3      +5.2 44 +5.1 44 57.0 336 +11.6 33 +12.6 4
55 Northwestern 0.0%   18 - 13 7 - 11 18 - 13 7 - 11 +8.9      +4.7 52 +4.3 60 64.4 260 +9.5 51 +8.4 8
57 Minnesota 2.9%   17 - 14 6 - 12 17 - 14 6 - 12 +8.9      +4.5 57 +4.5 57 68.1 166 +9.0 56 +7.1 9
81 Indiana 0.0%   12 - 20 3 - 15 12 - 20 3 - 15 +6.0      +3.1 80 +2.9 79 67.4 191 +2.4 132 +2.5 11
85 Iowa 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 +5.2      +2.6 88 +2.7 85 70.7 103 +2.8 128 +4.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Ohio St. 1.0 100.0
Purdue 2.0 100.0
Wisconsin 3.0 100.0
Illinois 4.0 100.0
Michigan 4.0 100.0
Michigan St. 4.0 100.0
Penn St. 4.0 100.0
Northwestern 8.0 100.0
Minnesota 9.0 100.0
Indiana 11.0 100.0
Iowa 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Ohio St. 16 - 2 100.0
Purdue 14 - 4 100.0
Wisconsin 13 - 5 100.0
Illinois 9 - 9 100.0
Michigan 9 - 9 100.0
Michigan St. 9 - 9 100.0
Penn St. 9 - 9 100.0
Northwestern 7 - 11 100.0
Minnesota 6 - 12 100.0
Indiana 3 - 15 100.0
Iowa 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Ohio St. 100.0% 100.0
Purdue
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Michigan St.
Penn St.
Northwestern
Minnesota
Indiana
Iowa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Ohio St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   88.3 11.6 0.1
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   8.4 30.8 41.7 18.3 0.8 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.7 3.0 20.0 53.9 22.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 8   0.0 0.7 6.9 27.5 39.9 20.3 3.5 0.2 1.0 99.0%
Michigan 95.8% 0.0% 95.8% 9   0.1 1.6 6.7 23.0 36.5 23.0 4.8 0.2 4.2 95.8%
Michigan St. 91.3% 0.0% 91.3% 10   0.0 0.5 2.6 12.0 29.5 32.2 13.1 1.5 8.7 91.3%
Penn St. 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 8   0.5 7.6 23.0 36.7 24.3 5.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 97.6%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.2 97.1 2.9%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.7% 81.8% 61.8% 44.0% 29.3% 19.2%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.0% 64.0% 37.2% 19.3% 9.8% 4.7%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.7% 53.1% 25.0% 13.1% 6.0% 2.5%
Illinois 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 59.3% 19.7% 9.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Michigan 95.8% 0.0% 95.8% 46.3% 12.0% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Michigan St. 91.3% 0.4% 91.1% 41.9% 11.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Penn St. 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 45.9% 11.1% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.9 0.6 14.5 82.5 2.4
1st Round 100.0% 6.9 0.6 14.9 83.1 1.4
2nd Round 100.0% 4.6 0.1 1.7 11.2 30.5 37.0 16.9 2.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.9% 2.5 1.1 12.3 36.0 35.8 12.9 1.9 0.1
Elite Eight 88.5% 1.5 11.5 42.4 35.5 9.7 0.9 0.0 0.0
Final Four 67.3% 0.8 32.7 51.8 14.5 1.0 0.0
Final Game 44.1% 0.5 55.9 41.0 3.2
Champion 27.0% 0.3 73.0 27.0